Washington – As the United States gears up for its presidential election, all eyes are on the two candidates and their policies. American businessman and former diplomat Stephen Biegun recently shared his insights on the Chinese perspective of the election, revealing that most Chinese counterparts he has spoken to hope for President Donald Trump to be re-elected.
Biegun, who served as the U.S. deputy secretary of state and special representative for North Korea during the Trump administration and currently holds the position of senior vice president of global public policy at Boeing Company, stated that there is a certain fascination with President Trump in China. Many Chinese believe that his unpredictability can bring about favorable outcomes for their country.
Despite Trump’s tough stance on China, many of his Chinese counterparts view him as someone who is not afraid to engage with them. This has led to a certain level of admiration and intrigue towards him. Biegun made these remarks during the Aspen Security Forum discussion, where he was asked about the potential impact of a second Trump presidency versus a second term for Joe Biden on China policy.
Both candidates have been vocal about their tough stance on China. Trump’s proposed policies include a general tariff of 10% on all foreign goods and a 60% tariff on goods from China. However, Biegun highlighted that a bigger concern with a second Trump presidency would be managing relations beyond China’s borders. He stated that these across-the-board tariffs would make it difficult to enlist other countries in sensible policies that address the United States’ national concerns in a coordinated manner.
When asked about the current state of the U.S.-China relationship, Anja Manuel, a former diplomat and executive director of the Aspen Strategy Group and the Aspen Security Forum, stated that regardless of the election outcome, there is no illusion of a positive upward swing in U.S.-China relations. Manuel, who has worked for Democratic and Republican administrations, mentioned that Biden’s summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping last year set a baseline for U.S.-China relations.
She predicted that if there is a second Biden administration, there will be continuity in their approach towards China. The concept of “managed competition” has been at the forefront of their strategy, and they will continue to handle it in a similar manner. However, if Trump is re-elected, Manuel believes that the U.S.-China relationship will be a wild ride. She pointed out that there seem to be widely different views from former members of the Trump administration and the former president himself.
On one hand, individuals such as Trump’s former deputy national security adviser, Matt Pottinger, and former House Select Committee on China Chairman Mike Gallagher, have written an article in Foreign Affairs magazine titled “No Substitute for Victory,” where they argue that the United States must defeat China and not just manage competition with it. On the other hand, Trump has made comments about imposing 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and has also questioned the need to protect Taiwan.
Manuel believes that these conflicting views create uncertainty for the Chinese, as they are unsure of Trump’s approach towards Taiwan and the protection of their own businesses. This uncertainty has led to a sense of apprehension and fear, as they do not know what Trump’s next move might be. However, Trump’s campaign promise to impose tariffs has caught the attention of former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who pointed out that this would ultimately lead to higher costs for consumers who shop at popular retail stores like Walmart.
As the U.S. election draws near, it is clear that both candidates hold strong opinions and policies towards China. While Biden’s approach towards China is expected to be more consistent, a second Trump presidency could lead to a rollercoaster ride in U.S.-China relations. As for the Chinese, they are closely watching the election, trying to decipher what the future holds for their relationship with the United States. However, no matter who is elected, it is certain that the U.S.-China relationship will continue to be a complex and crucial one.
