Tokyo – U.S. Naval Dominance Under Strain as China’s Shipbuilding Industry Expands
For decades, the United States has held a dominant position in the naval arena, projecting strength and deterring conflict in key areas such as the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. However, this dominance is now facing a serious challenge as China’s state-backed shipbuilding industry rapidly expands, while the U.S. Navy struggles with severe maintenance delays.
The impact of these delays is being felt across the Navy, with some ships and submarines stuck waiting for repairs at overcrowded U.S. shipyards and others forced into extended deployments, pushing crews and vessels to their limits. This undermines the U.S. ability to maintain its presence and protect its interests in the Indo-Pacific region.
To address this issue, the U.S. is turning to its allies, particularly Japan, one of the world’s largest shipbuilders. Negotiations have begun between U.S. and Japanese officials to expand Japan’s role in performing major repairs on U.S. Navy vessels at its shipyards.
According to Rahm Emanuel, U.S. Ambassador to Japan, this proposal is crucial for keeping U.S. ships in the region. “The Indo-Pacific is an away game for us, but with allies, it’s closer to a home game,” he told VOA.
This move also reflects Japan’s broader shift towards a more active regional security role, as it steps away from decades of pacifism. It is also part of a larger strategy by the U.S. to encourage its Asian allies to take on greater security responsibilities in the face of China’s rising influence.
However, the proposal faces significant challenges. In the U.S., legal changes would be needed to allow foreign shipyards to overhaul Navy vessels. In Japan, there are concerns about becoming a bigger target for China.
The U.S. Navy’s maintenance backlog is a severe challenge, with about a third of the attack submarine fleet currently out of service and fewer than 40% of scheduled ship repairs completed on time. This is due to a shortage of skilled workers and limited capacity at the four U.S. government-run naval shipyards.
In contrast, China boasts 20 large shipyards, which it is using to quickly build up what is already the world’s largest navy in terms of overall vessels. According to a recent unclassified slide released by U.S. naval intelligence, China’s shipbuilding capacity is over 200 times that of the United States, fueled by generous government subsidies.
While the U.S. still maintains significant naval advantages, such as 11 aircraft carriers compared to China’s three and an unrivaled network of global alliances, some observers believe that China’s ability to dwarf U.S. shipbuilding represents a fundamental shift in the regional balance of power.
“We’ve let that underlying capacity atrophy to the point where we’re behind the eight ball at the moment, and that’s a big, thorny problem,” said Sam Byers, senior national security advisor at the Center for Maritime Strategy in Washington D.C.
The U.S.-Japan ship repair proposal has the potential to alleviate the U.S. Navy’s maintenance backlog, freeing up U.S. shipyards to focus on meeting their construction goals and allowing U.S. ships to stay longer in Asia. However, there are differing opinions on the benefits and drawbacks of this proposal.
Some argue that repairing more ships overseas could help manage fluctuations in demand and minimize disruptions for Japan-based crews. Others caution that shifting work overseas would not solve the underlying issues of funding and planning that contribute to the Navy’s repair delays.
There are also concerns about outsourcing U.S. Navy shipbuilding and repairs, with some in the shipbuilding industry characterizing it as “kicking American shipyard workers to the curb.”
In Japan, there is a gap in understanding among the public when it comes to the country’s changing security posture. While there has been a shift towards a more assertive stance after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is unclear how deep and lasting this shift is.
There are also risks for Japan in taking on a larger role in U.S. ship repairs, as it could potentially escalate tensions with China and make Japan a bigger target. However, Japan remains wary of China’s destabilizing behavior in the region and is careful not to provoke them.
As the U.S. and Japan deepen their ties, it is important to consider the complex choices and potential consequences of the U.S.-Japan ship repair deal.
