Western politicians have been calling on China to limit or cease their tacit support for Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. However, China’s leadership has repeatedly insisted that they are committed to peace and respect for the territorial integrity of other nations. Despite this, China has not condemned Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine like most other United Nations member states. In fact, their military-diplomatic partnership with Russia, from joint bomber flights near the U.S. state of Alaska to votes in the U.N. Security Council, has only helped the Kremlin overcome its international isolation.
While President Donald Trump has stated that he has good personal relations with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, there is a growing consensus among experts in Washington that the China-Russia partnership poses a threat to U.S. interests. While Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, attempted to establish a strategic dialogue with China, the current administration seems to be prioritizing normalized ties with Russia while punishing China over trade.
As the White House discusses the possibility of restoring economic cooperation with Russia, some officials are even hinting at lifting or reducing the sanctions that the U.S. has imposed on Moscow in recent years. This has raised concerns among experts about the potential consequences of such a move.
Charles Hecker, an expert on Western-Russian economic ties and author of the book Zero Sum: The Arc of International Business in Russia, believes that if sanctions are lifted, some Western companies will quickly return to doing business in Russia, particularly those involved in energy, metals, and minerals. He explains that these companies are accustomed to operating in high-risk environments and have the necessary internal structures to protect themselves. He also points out that there is a limited supply of oil in countries like Norway and Canada, making Russia an attractive option for energy companies.
However, Hecker cautions that the return of Western companies to Russia does not necessarily signal an overall U.S.-Russian rapprochement, nor does it mean a weakening of Sino-Russian relations. He believes that it will be challenging for the West to pull Russia away from China, as President Putin has repeatedly expressed his desire to create an alternative political and economic environment to the West. This includes a strong partnership with China, which has become an important energy partner for Russia.
Despite the potential economic benefits for Western companies, there are concerns about the limited domestic appeal of the Sino-Russian alliance. FilterLabs, a U.S.-based company that analyzes public sentiment in regions where polling is difficult, recently published a report on popular attitudes towards the China-Russia partnership on social media networks in both countries. The report found that there are underlying tensions, mistrust, and diverging interests between the two nations. Vasily Gatov, one of the report’s authors, believes that historical frictions, such as Russia’s annexation of the Amur Region from China and its colonial policies towards China in the past, could be a vulnerability in the alliance.
Gatov also notes that China’s economic presence in Russia is still relatively small compared to that of Europe or the U.S. before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This suggests that while Russia and China may have some overlapping interests, they are not always in lockstep with each other.
However, some experts question the validity of the FilterLabs findings, arguing that random opinions expressed on social media do not hold much weight in influencing state policies. Alexander Gabuev, director of the Berlin-based Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, believes that the Chinese leadership sees Russia as a valuable partner in terms of military technology and experience, particularly in countering Western weapons during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
One crucial factor that could potentially impact the Sino-Russian partnership is how President Trump perceives China. Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy advisor on the U.S. and China at the International Crisis Group, describes Trump as an anomaly in U.S. policy towards China. While there is a widespread bipartisan agreement that China is America’s foremost strategic competitor, Trump has a different view. He sees Chinese President Xi Jinping as a “dear friend” and believes that their personal rapport will be the key to resetting the U.S.-China relationship over the next four years.
In conclusion, while there are concerns about the potential consequences of the U.S. normalizing ties with Russia and potentially lifting sanctions, it is unlikely to significantly impact the Sino-Russian partnership. The two nations may have some underlying tensions and diverging interests, but they also have a strong
