In a surprising turn of events, Puntland forces in Somalia have successfully pushed back against the Islamic State terror group in a recent offensive. The battles, which have been ongoing for the past month, have resulted in significant casualties for both sides.
On the morning of February 4th, Puntland forces launched an attack on IS fighters in the village of Qurac. Despite facing drones, suicide attacks, and infantry charges, the Puntland forces were able to force the terrorists to retreat. In the aftermath of the battle, at least 57 IS fighters were found dead, while 15 Puntland soldiers lost their lives.
However, the success of the Puntland forces did not end there. The following week, IS fighters launched a major counterattack in the Togjaceel valley, resulting in over 100 fatalities – 28 Puntland soldiers and more than 70 militants. But once again, the terrorists were forced to retreat, losing three of their bases to the Puntland forces.
These battles are part of a larger offensive against IS fighters who have been hiding in the mountains of semi-autonomous Puntland. The success of the Puntland forces has come as a surprise to many, as military commanders had expected a more intense and prolonged fight as they got closer to the main IS strongholds in the region.
But instead, the Puntland forces have been making steady progress, capturing caves and small villages one after the other. They have also successfully pushed IS out of the strategically important 40-kilometer-long Togjaceel Valley. This has forced the terrorists to flee in different directions, with some seeking refuge in nearby mountainous areas.
According to Brigadier General Ahmed Abdullahi Sheikh, the former commander of Somalia’s U.S.-trained Danab forces, there is a high likelihood that IS will attempt to establish new safe havens following their retreat. He also believes that the offensive, though appearing conventional, has consistently involved guerrilla tactics and will likely drive IS to intensify their asymmetric warfare against Puntland.
Fortunately, Puntland’s counterterrorism forces have the numbers and resources to carry out a protracted conflict with IS. The United Arab Emirates has been providing air support, including airstrikes against the militants, while the United States has also carried out two rounds of airstrikes targeting IS last month. These strikes have been successful in eliminating key IS leaders, including Ahmed Maeleninine, a top recruiter and financier for the terror group responsible for deploying jihadists into the United States and across Europe.
Despite the success of the Puntland forces, the U.S. Department of Defense has declined to comment on the apparent IS retreat. However, a U.S. defense official has indicated that Washington is prepared to potentially lend additional help in the fight against terrorism in the Horn of Africa.
Other observers have also noted the persistent pressure by the Somali forces, along with the support from the U.S. and UAE, as key factors contributing to the success of the Puntland offensive. According to a former senior Western counterterrorism official, there are indications that the Puntland forces are making real progress against IS in their hideouts. However, the question remains whether they will be able to hold the captured territory and prevent IS from making a comeback in the future.
If the Puntland forces are able to maintain their control over the captured territory, it could have far-reaching effects beyond Somalia’s borders. The al-Karrar office, a key financial hub for IS, has been heavily impacted by the offensive. This office has been responsible for funneling money to IS affiliates in Afghanistan and other parts of Africa since 2022. Its loss could significantly weaken the terror group’s financial network.
However, concerns remain about the possibility of IS regrouping if the Puntland forces are unable to maintain their pursuit. Regional security analysts warn that the difficult terrain in Puntland’s mountains could provide IS with an opportunity to regroup and launch further attacks. This is why it is crucial for the Puntland forces to secure and man the territories they have liberated to prevent IS from making a comeback.
In the face of defeat, IS has resorted to melting into the population, making it difficult for the Puntland forces to track them down. This tactic has also allowed the terror group to hide some of its most prominent and important leaders, including Abdul Qadir Mumin, the leader of IS-Somalia, and
